Toronto's Childcare Deserts: Where the Kids Are and the Daycares Aren't

By Joshua Opolko · Published June 11, 2026 · Data: 2021 Census, City of Toronto Open Data, Ontario Licensed Child Care Database, TDSB

Toronto has 79,569 licensed childcare spaces and 383,318 children under 15. Line every kid up and only about one in five gets a spot: 20.8 licensed spaces per 100 children (Ontario Licensed Child Care Database; Statistics Canada, 2021 Census). The citywide average, though, hides the real story.

Where you live changes everything. Greenwood-Coxwell offers 49.6 licensed spaces per 100 children. Black Creek offers 1.8. Both neighbourhoods are full of kids; only one is full of daycares. This guide maps both ends of the spectrum across all 158 City of Toronto neighbourhoods, as part of our data guide to choosing a Toronto neighbourhood for your family.

How much licensed childcare does Toronto actually have?

Toronto has 1,055 licensed childcare centres offering 79,569 spaces, while the 2021 Census counts 383,318 children under 15 across the city's 158 neighbourhoods. That works out to 20.8 licensed spaces per 100 kids (Ontario Licensed Child Care Database), or roughly one space for every five children under 15.

The spread around that average is enormous. The median neighbourhood sits at 21.35 spaces per 100 kids, close to the citywide rate. The extremes run from 1.8 in Black Creek and Brookhaven-Amesbury to 76.1 in Kensington-Chinatown. That's a 42-fold difference between the best-covered and worst-covered corners of the same city.

One caveat up front. Licensed capacity spans infant through school age, and most spaces serve children under 6, while our denominator counts everyone under 15. Not every child needs a licensed spot. Treat the ratio as a comparable coverage yardstick across neighbourhoods, not a literal waitlist count.

Which Toronto neighbourhoods have the least licensed childcare?

Black Creek and Brookhaven-Amesbury have the least licensed childcare among Toronto's family-heavy neighbourhoods: just 1.8 licensed spaces per 100 children under 15 (Ontario Licensed Child Care Database). That's less than a tenth of the citywide rate of 20.8. Black Creek's 3,996 kids share 72 spaces across 2 centres.

To find true deserts rather than just empty-nester areas, we screened for neighbourhoods with at least 10,000 residents and an above-median share of children (the citywide median is 14.55% under 15, per the 2021 Census), then ranked them by licensed spaces per 100 kids. These ten came out at the bottom.

Black Creek's numbers deserve a second look. One licensed space exists for every 55 children under 15. The neighbourhood's median income is $65,000, well below the citywide median of $84,500, and 67% of households rent (2021 Census). It also has a single TDSB school for nearly 4,000 kids, just 0.25 schools per 1,000 children (TDSB directory). Families there face thin public infrastructure on multiple fronts at once.

Brookhaven-Amesbury is barely different: one licensed centre, 55 spaces, 3,062 children. And the pattern repeats down the list. Seven of the ten desert neighbourhoods have median incomes below the citywide median, and every one sits in Toronto's inner suburbs rather than the old core. Scarcity isn't random; it tracks where land is cheaper and kids are more numerous.

Several of these names, including Rockcliffe-Smythe and Dorset Park, also show up in our guide to affordable family-heavy neighbourhoods in Toronto. Lower housing costs and low licensed-childcare coverage often arrive as a package, which is exactly the trade-off parents should price in before moving.

What about Thorncliffe Park?

No neighbourhood illustrates the mismatch like Thorncliffe Park. It has the highest child share in the city: 24.4% of its 20,400 residents are under 15, which means 4,978 kids (2021 Census). For them, there are 5 licensed centres with 346 spaces, or 7.0 per 100 children, about a third of the citywide rate.

Thorncliffe Park misses the bottom-ten table only because its 7.0 clears the cutoff of 6.2. By raw need it may be the sharpest case in Toronto: 86% of households rent, median income is $67,000, and its 3 TDSB schools work out to 0.6 per 1,000 kids. More children per capita than anywhere else, and a fraction of the average childcare coverage.

Which neighbourhoods are best served?

Kensington-Chinatown is Toronto's best-served neighbourhood for licensed childcare, with 76.1 spaces per 100 children under 15 (Ontario Licensed Child Care Database). Among family-heavy areas, Greenwood-Coxwell leads at 49.6 spaces per 100 kids, backed by 14 licensed centres holding 1,267 spaces for its 2,556 children.

Notice the inversion. The best-served list is dominated by central neighbourhoods where children are scarce. Only 6.9% of Kensington-Chinatown's residents are under 15, and Wellington Place sits at 4.4%. Greenwood-Coxwell is the only entry with a clearly above-median child share (18.1% against the 14.55% citywide median). High coverage often reflects few kids, not abundant daycares.

The exceptions are the useful part for parents. Greenwood-Coxwell pairs its 49.6 spaces per 100 kids with 8 TDSB schools, the kind of double win that puts it near the top of our ranking of the best Toronto neighbourhoods for families. Roncesvalles manages 51.2 with a near-median child share. And Henry Farm holds 44.8 despite being the city's fastest-growing neighbourhood, up 26.2% in population from 2016 to 2021.

How big is the gap?

Greenwood-Coxwell offers 49.6 licensed spaces per 100 kids while Black Creek offers 1.8, a nearly 28-fold gap between two neighbourhoods where children make up over 18% of residents (2021 Census; Ontario Licensed Child Care Database). The ten desert neighbourhoods combined hold 32,798 children but just 1,330 licensed spaces.

Add up both top-ten lists and the imbalance gets starker. The ten deserts have 32,798 kids and 1,330 spaces, about 4.1 per 100. The ten best-served neighbourhoods have 16,635 kids and 8,825 spaces, about 53.1 per 100. Half as many children, more than six times the licensed capacity.

At the extremes, the ratio between Kensington-Chinatown (76.1) and Black Creek (1.8) is 42 to 1. Even comparing only family-heavy areas, Greenwood-Coxwell's coverage runs nearly 28 times Black Creek's. For a parent weighing two listings at similar prices, this single variable can mean the difference between a short waitlist and a multi-year one.

Compare childcare, schools and more for any two neighbourhoods in HomeTurf →

What this measure does and doesn't count

These figures count licensed centres only, drawn from the Ontario Licensed Child Care Database. Licensed capacity spans infant through school age, and most spaces serve children under 6, while the denominator covers everyone under 15 (2021 Census). Home daycares and unlicensed care aren't included, so real-world coverage is broader than these ratios show.

The direction of the bias matters less than its consistency. Because the same definition applies to all 158 neighbourhoods, the rankings hold even if the absolute levels understate what families can actually find. Population counts are 2021 vintage, so fast-changing areas may have shifted since. Full sources, formulas and limitations are documented in our methodology and limitations page.