Toronto's Fastest-Growing (and Shrinking) Neighbourhoods, 2016–2021
Key takeaways
- Henry Farm grew 26.2% from 2016 to 2021, the fastest of Toronto's 158 neighbourhoods (2021 Census). Regent Park (+18.0%) and Long Branch (+12.7%) follow.
- University shrank fastest at −15.4%, with Wychwood (−10.8%) and Milliken (−9.8%) next. The 2021 pandemic-era count likely affected student-heavy areas.
- Two of the ten fastest growers, Pelmo Park-Humberlea and Yonge-Eglinton, have zero TDSB schools and under 6 licensed childcare spaces per 100 kids.
- Nine of the ten fastest-shrinking neighbourhoods sit above the citywide childcare rate of 20.8 spaces per 100 kids. Infrastructure lags people, in both directions.
- Growth here means census-to-census population change, not housing starts or sales activity.
Between 2016 and 2021, Henry Farm added more than a quarter to its population while University lost roughly a seventh of its residents. Those are the extremes among Toronto's 158 official neighbourhoods, according to the Statistics Canada 2021 Census as published in the City of Toronto Neighbourhood Profiles.
This guide ranks the ten fastest-growing and ten fastest-shrinking neighbourhoods, then asks the question that matters for parents: when a neighbourhood booms, do its childcare centres and schools keep up? It's one chapter of our larger data guide to choosing a Toronto neighbourhood for your family.
Which Toronto neighbourhoods grew fastest from 2016 to 2021?
Henry Farm leads all 158 Toronto neighbourhoods with 26.2% population growth between 2016 and 2021, reaching 19,840 residents (Statistics Canada, 2021 Census). Regent Park follows at 18.0% and Long Branch at 12.7%. Five of the ten fastest growers are majority-renter neighbourhoods.
| Neighbourhood | 2016–21 change | 2021 population | Renter share | Spaces per 100 kids | TDSB schools |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Farm | +26.2% | 19,840 | 61% | 44.8 | 4 |
| Regent Park | +18.0% | 12,750 | 71% | 41.7 | 6 |
| Long Branch | +12.7% | 11,360 | 50% | 14.3 | 1 |
| Yorkdale-Glen Park | +12.3% | 16,625 | 46% | 27.7 | 2 |
| Humbermede | +9.1% | 16,955 | 54% | 14.2 | 4 |
| Clanton Park | +7.0% | 17,620 | 45% | 26.3 | 3 |
| Pelmo Park-Humberlea | +5.3% | 11,290 | 19% | 3.8 | 0 |
| Yonge-Eglinton | +5.0% | 12,410 | 63% | 5.7 | 0 |
| Moss Park | +4.8% | 21,490 | 65% | 42.8 | 2 |
| Alderwood | +4.5% | 12,595 | 23% | 32.7 | 2 |
The list skews rental. Regent Park (71% renters), Moss Park (65%), Yonge-Eglinton (63%) and Henry Farm (61%) all grew while housing more renters than owners, and Long Branch splits exactly 50/50 (2021 Census). If tenure shapes your search, our breakdown of renters' Toronto versus owners' Toronto maps where each group dominates.
Incomes across the top ten run from $65,000 in Moss Park to $106,000 in Alderwood, so fast growth isn't confined to one price tier. Long Branch, the only lakefront entry, gets a closer family-focused look in our Long Branch vs Mimico-Queensway comparison.
Which neighbourhoods shrank the most?
University shrank fastest, losing 15.4% of its population to land at 6,435 residents in 2021 (2021 Census). Wychwood fell 10.8% and Milliken 9.8%. Nine of the ten fastest-shrinking neighbourhoods still post above-average licensed childcare coverage, a reminder that infrastructure often lags population shifts in both directions.
| Neighbourhood | 2016–21 change | 2021 population | Owner share | Spaces per 100 kids |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University | −15.4% | 6,435 | 39% | 182.1 |
| Wychwood | −10.8% | 12,800 | 51% | 32.4 |
| Milliken | −9.8% | 23,980 | 88% | 32.2 |
| Humber Heights-Westmount | −8.6% | 10,005 | 60% | 31.8 |
| Bayview Woods-Steeles | −8.1% | 12,085 | 56% | 32.4 |
| Steeles | −7.5% | 22,765 | 83% | 24.3 |
| Trinity-Bellwoods | −6.9% | 15,415 | 56% | 24.5 |
| Corso Italia-Davenport | −6.6% | 13,200 | 63% | 22.9 |
| South Parkdale | −6.2% | 20,495 | 15% | 25.1 |
| Cabbagetown-South St. James Town | −5.6% | 11,020 | 45% | 11.1 |
Notice what the shrinking list is not: it's not a roster of struggling areas. Trinity-Bellwoods ($92,000 median household income), Corso Italia-Davenport ($94,000) and Wychwood ($86,000) are established, mid-to-high-income central neighbourhoods that simply counted fewer people in 2021 than in 2016 (2021 Census).
The full picture: top 10 vs bottom 10 on one chart
The spread between Toronto's fastest grower and fastest shrinker is 41.6 percentage points: Henry Farm at +26.2% versus University at −15.4% (2021 Census). The chart below puts all twenty neighbourhoods on one zero-centred scale, growers in dark brown to the right, shrinkers in light brown to the left.
Compare these neighbourhoods side by side in HomeTurf →
Are childcare and schools keeping pace in fast-growing neighbourhoods?
Coverage splits sharply. Henry Farm (44.8 licensed spaces per 100 kids) and Regent Park (41.7) more than double Toronto's citywide rate of 20.8 (Ontario Licensed Child Care Database). Four other fast growers, Long Branch, Humbermede, Pelmo Park-Humberlea and Yonge-Eglinton, sit at 14.3 spaces per 100 kids or below.
The standouts are striking. Henry Farm grew faster than anywhere else in the city and still ranks among Toronto's best-served neighbourhoods for licensed childcare, with 12 centres and 1,290 spaces for 2,877 kids under 15. Regent Park adds six TDSB schools, or 3.46 per 1,000 kids, nearly triple Henry Farm's 1.39 (TDSB directory).
The gaps are just as clear. Pelmo Park-Humberlea (+5.3%) has zero TDSB schools and just 3.8 licensed spaces per 100 kids, a coverage level that puts it among the city's childcare deserts. Yonge-Eglinton (+5.0%) also has zero TDSB schools and only 5.7 spaces per 100 kids. We map the full pattern in our guide to Toronto's childcare deserts and best-served neighbourhoods.
Humbermede deserves a flag too. It has the most children of any fast grower, 3,018 kids under 15, or 17.8% of its population, yet only 14.2 licensed spaces per 100 kids (2021 Census; Ontario Licensed Child Care Database). Two caveats: licensed centres aren't the whole childcare market, and the TDSB count excludes Catholic, French-board and private schools.
Why did some neighbourhoods shrink?
The data shows what changed, not why, but patterns stand out. University's 15.4% drop coincided with a pandemic-era census: many students likely weren't living near campus in spring 2021 (2021 Census). And the two most owner-heavy shrinkers, Milliken (88% owners) and Steeles (83%), fit a pattern consistent with stable housing and shrinking households.
Treat these as possible explanations, not proven causes. The 2016–2021 window captures the pre-pandemic boom and the first pandemic year, an unusual stretch by any standard. University is the clearest example of distortion: with only 508 kids under 15 left in the count, its 182.1 licensed spaces per 100 kids is an artifact of a small denominator, not a childcare miracle.
The owner-renter split is suggestive in both directions. Several of the fastest growers are majority-renter, while Milliken and Steeles, the most owner-dominated names on either list, both shed 7.5% or more of their population. Where renters and owners actually live, and what that means for families, is the subject of our renters vs owners guide. Full source notes live on our methodology and limitations page.
What growth means for your shortlist
Growth is a useful tiebreaker, not a verdict. Regent Park pairs 18.0% growth with 41.7 childcare spaces per 100 kids and 3.46 TDSB schools per 1,000 kids, while Long Branch pairs 12.7% growth with 0.63 schools per 1,000 (2021 Census; TDSB directory). Same direction of travel, very different family infrastructure.
Remember what the number is: census-to-census population change. It isn't housing starts, isn't price appreciation, and isn't a quality score. A shrinking neighbourhood like Trinity-Bellwoods can still be a strong family choice, and a growing one can leave you on a childcare waitlist for years.
Our practical suggestion: use growth alongside affordability and kid density. Several growers here, like Humbermede ($77,500 median income) and Yorkdale-Glen Park ($79,000), sit below the citywide median income of $84,500, which overlaps with the areas in our list of affordable, family-heavy Toronto neighbourhoods.
Frequently asked questions
What is the fastest growing neighbourhood in Toronto?
Henry Farm grew 26.2% between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the fastest of Toronto's 158 neighbourhoods, reaching 19,840 residents (2021 Census). Regent Park ranked second at 18.0%, and Long Branch third at 12.7%. Henry Farm also pairs that growth with 44.8 licensed childcare spaces per 100 kids, more than double the citywide rate.
Which Toronto neighbourhood shrank the most from 2016 to 2021?
University recorded the steepest decline at −15.4%, falling to 6,435 residents by 2021 (2021 Census). A possible partial explanation is timing: the 2021 count took place during the pandemic, when many post-secondary students were not living near campus. Wychwood (−10.8%) and Milliken (−9.8%) round out the bottom three.
Do fast-growing neighbourhoods have enough childcare?
It varies widely. Henry Farm (44.8 spaces per 100 kids) and Regent Park (41.7) both beat the citywide rate of 20.8 (Ontario Licensed Child Care Database). But Pelmo Park-Humberlea has 3.8 spaces per 100 kids and Yonge-Eglinton 5.7, and neither has a single TDSB school despite growing 5.3% and 5.0%.
Does population growth mean new housing construction?
Not exactly. These figures compare total census populations in 2016 and 2021, so they capture everything that changes headcounts: new buildings, household sizes, students moving, and pandemic-era relocations. A neighbourhood can add condo towers and still shrink on paper if average household size falls. Treat growth as one signal, not proof of new supply.
Is a growing neighbourhood better for families?
Growth alone doesn't guarantee family infrastructure. Long Branch grew 12.7% but has one TDSB school for 1,590 kids under 15 and 14.3 licensed childcare spaces per 100 kids, below the citywide 20.8 (2021 Census; TDSB directory). Check childcare coverage, schools, and tenure mix alongside growth before committing to a neighbourhood.